China's goods exports surged 35.2% in October from a year earlier, while imports jumped 41.6%, pushing the country's trade surplus past $1 trillion for the second consecutive year, according to customs data released Tuesday.
The January-to-October surplus reached $1.04 trillion, exceeding last year's pace by a full month, the General Administration of Customs reported. October's monthly surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September as import growth outpaced exports.
Moody's Analytics economist Dave Chia told The Independent he expects Chinese exports to remain strong through year-end, led by electronics and autos.
Exports have been driven by high-tech goods including semiconductors and automobiles. But Natixis chief Asia Pacific economist Alicia García-Herrero warned that overcapacity across many industries, excess domestic savings and weak domestic demand are forcing China to ship goods abroad, a situation she called unsustainable.
Businesses are feeling ferocious competition. An eyewear seller for a manufacturer in Linhai, Zhejiang province, told The Independent that product homogenization has forced companies to compete on price.
Trade curbs by the European Union and U.S. tariffs pose significant risks, Chia said. A two-month trade truce extended until January has given exporters some breathing room, though its durability is unclear.
The trade figures come as Trump and Xi are expected to meet during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in Shenzhen later this month. Trade is among the top agenda items.
China's exports could be vulnerable if the artificial intelligence boom slows, Chia added, noting that Democratic gains in the U.S. midterms have deepened concerns about data center expansion.
Strong exports have helped offset sluggish domestic demand, with the economy on track to meet Beijing's official growth target of 4.5% to 5% this year, slightly slower than last year's 5% expansion.